Happy holidays, everyone! It is a busy period for most of us as we’re racing towards the finish line for the year and contemplating what’s next. It’s also the season of healthcare predictions run amok. I have seen so many pieces, tweets and blog posts espousing what’s ahead for 2026 - with a standout set as usual from the venture firm Venrock.
But I figured I’d mull over and share some of my own, particularly after talking with so many peers on what they expect to see. So this list is primarily mine and these opinions are my own, but I’ve certainly been influenced by the policy thinkers, entrepreneurs and investors that I talk to regularly.
Some of these predictions may not pan out. But I promise to hold myself accountable and will check back at the end of next year to see how I did.
Health plan M&A? Perhaps not. Health plan transactions may make sense in theory, but will struggle to get through the Trump administration. That is clearly not ideal for digital health, and will stymie exits for the category.
A few more IPOs, but not a lot: There will be a few more IPOs in health tech, but a trickle, not a flood. The companies that are most watched and have the highest potential to go out next year - again, in my opinion - include Aledade, Zelis, Innovacer, and Included Health. But my expectation is it’ll be no more than a few names.
The first autonomous doctor starts administering care – but despite the headlines that we’ll see popping up around how the future is here, the scope will remain highly limited (both on a state-by-state basis and what the AI can actually do to treat patients). Linked to that, we’ll see more state sandboxes for testing out new AI tools for care delivery, like this one in Utah. That will be critical for innovation, because the alternative is the highly complex and slow FDA clearance route.
The largest digital health companies will all flock to the ACCESS program to find a new business model in Medicare, while also duking it out for a slice of the available rural health funding. Much of that is already in motion. There’s no question digital health companies will be the beneficiaries, particularly given that the executive and policymaker running Medicare - Chris Klomp - has an entrepreneurial background and formerly sat on the board of venture-backed Maven Clinic.
It’ll be a strong growth year for direct-to-consumer, wellness plays for a variety of reasons including the tailwinds from MAHA (the ELEVATE model is a good example), and the rise of level funded plans amongst smaller firms in particular. Investors that remained aligned with enterprise-only plays may start kicking themselves.